Omicron COVID-19 Immune Correlates Analysis of a Third Dose of mRNA-1273 in the COVE Trial (preprint)

In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 efficacy trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, IgG binding antibody (bAb) concentration against Spike (BA.1 strain) and neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against Spike (BA.1 strain) pseudovirus were assessed as correlates of risk of Omicron COVID-19 and as correlates of relative boost efficacy in per-protocol recipients of a third (booster) dose. Markers were measured on the day of the boost (BD1) and 28 days later (BD29). For SARS-CoV-2 naive individuals, BD29 Spike IgG-BA.1 strain bAbs and BD29 BA.1-strain nAbs inversely correlated with Omicron COVID-19: hazard ratio (HR) per 10-fold marker increase [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.16 (0.03, 0.79); P=0.024 and 0.31 (0.10, 0.96); P = 0.042, respectively. These markers also inversely correlated with Omicron COVID-19 in non-naive individuals: HR = 0.15 (0.04, 0.63); P = 0.009 and 0.28 (0.07, 1.08); P = 0.06, trend. Fold-rise in markers from BD1 to BD29 had similarly strong inverse correlations. For SARS-CoV-2 naive individuals, overall booster relative (three-dose vs two-dose) efficacy was 46% (95% CI: 20%, 64%) and correlated with BA.1 strain nAb titer at exposure. At 56, 251, and 891 arbitrary units (AU)/ml (10th, 50th, and 90th percentile), the booster relative efficacies were -8% (95% CI: -126%, 48%), 50% (25%, 67%), and 74% (49%, 87%), respectively. Similar relationships were observed for Spike IgG-BA.1 strain bAbs and for the markers measured at BD29. The performance of bAb and nAb markers as correlates of protection against Omicron COVID-19 supports their continued use as surrogate endpoints for mRNA vaccination against Omicron COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Variant Vaccine Boosters Trial: Preliminary Analyses (preprint)

Background: Protection from SARS-CoV-2 vaccines wanes over time and is compounded by emerging variants including Omicron subvariants. This study evaluated safety and immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variant vaccines. Methods: This phase 2 open-label, randomized trial enrolled healthy adults previously vaccinated with a SARS-CoV-2 primary series and a single boost. Eligible participants were randomized to one of six Moderna COVID19 mRNA vaccine arms (50 mcg dose): Prototype (mRNA-1273), Omicron BA.1+Beta (1 or 2 doses), Omicron BA.1+Delta, Omicron BA.1 monovalent, and Omicron BA.1+Prototype. Neutralization antibody titers (ID50) were assessed for D614G, Delta, Beta and Omicron BA.1 variants and Omicron BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 subvariants 15 days after vaccination. Results: From March 30 to May 6, 2022, 597 participants were randomized and vaccinated. Median age was 53 years, and 20% had a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. All vaccines were safe and well-tolerated. Day 15 geometric mean titers (GMT) against D614G were similar across arms and ages, and higher with prior infection. For uninfected participants, Day 15 Omicron BA.1 GMTs were similar across Omicron-containing vaccine arms (3724-4561) and higher than Prototype (1,997 [95%CI:1,482-2,692]). The Omicron BA.1 monovalent and Omicron BA.1+Prototype vaccines induced a geometric mean ratio (GMR) to Prototype for Omicron BA.1 of 2.03 (97.5%CI:1.37-3.00) and 1.56 (97.5%CI:1.06-2.31), respectively. A subset of samples from uninfected participants in four arms were also tested in a different laboratory at Day 15 for neutralizing antibody titers to D614G and Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2.12.2 and BA.4/BA.5. Omicron BA.4/BA.5 GMTs were approximately one third BA.1 GMTs (Prototype 517 [95%CI:324-826] vs. 1503 [95%CI:949-2381]; Omicron BA.1+Beta 628 [95%CI:367-1,074] vs. 2125 [95%CI:1139-3965]; Omicron BA.1+Delta 765 [95%CI:443-1,322] vs. 2242 [95%CI:1218-4128] and Omicron BA.1+Prototype 635 [95%CI:447-903] vs. 1972 [95%CI:1337-2907). Conclusions: Higher Omicron BA.1 titers were observed with Omicron-containing vaccines compared to Prototype vaccine and titers against Omicron BA.4/BA.5 were lower than against BA.1 for all candidate vaccines. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT05289037

Immune Correlates Analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial (preprint)

In the randomized, placebo-controlled PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial conducted in the U.S. and Mexico of the NVX-CoV2373 adjuvanted, recombinant spike protein nanoparticle vaccine, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These immune correlates analyses were conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measured the antibody markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases (Mexico was excluded due to zero breakthrough cases with the efficacy data cut-off date April 19, 2021). In vaccine recipients, the baseline risk factor-adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.36 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.63), p<0.001 (adjusted p-0.005) per 10-fold increase in IgG spike concentration and 0.39 (0.19, 0.82), p=0.013 (adjusted p=0.030) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At spike IgG concentration 100, 1000, and 6934 binding antibody units/ml (100 is the 3rd percentile, 6934 is the 97.5th percentile), vaccine efficacy to reduce the probability of acquiring COVID-19 at 59 days post marker measurement was 65.5% (95% CI: 23.0%, 90.8%), 87.7% (77.7%, 94.4%), and 94.8% (88.0%, 97.9%), respectively. At nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, 1000, and 7230 IU50/ml (50 is the 5th percentile, 7230 the 97.5th percentile), these estimates were 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), 92.8% (85.1%, 97.4%) and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The same two antibody markers were assessed as immune correlates via the same study design and statistical analysis in the mRNA-1273 phase 3 COVE trial (except in COVE the markers were measured four weeks post dose two). Spike IgG levels were slightly lower and nAb ID50 titers slightly higher after NVX-CoV2373 than after mRNA-1273 vaccination. The strength of the nAb ID50 correlate was similar between the trials, whereas the spike IgG antibodies appeared to correlate more strongly with NVX-CoV2373 in PREVENT-19, as quantified by the hazard ratio and the degree of change in vaccine efficacy across antibody levels. However, the relatively few breakthrough cases in PREVENT-19 limited the ability to infer a stronger correlate. The conclusion is that both markers were consistent correlates of protection for the two vaccines, supporting potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.

COVID-19 booster vaccination during pregnancy enhances maternal binding and neutralizing antibody responses and transplacental antibody transfer to the newborn (DMID 21-0004) (preprint)

ImportanceCOVID-19 vaccination is recommended during pregnancy for the protection of the mother. Little is known about the immune response to booster vaccinations during pregnancy. ObjectiveTo measure immune responses to COVID-19 primary and booster mRNA vaccination during pregnancy and transplacental antibody transfer to the newborn. DesignProspective cohort study of pregnant participants enrolled from July 2021 to January 2022, with follow up through and up to 12 months after delivery. SettingMulticenter study conducted at 9 academic sites. ParticipantsPregnant participants who received COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and their newborns. Exposure(s)Primary or booster COVID-19 mRNA vaccination during pregnancy. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)SARS-CoV-2 binding and neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers after primary or booster COVID-19 mRNA vaccination during pregnancy and antibody transfer to the newborn. Immune responses were compared between primary and booster vaccine recipients in maternal sera at delivery and in cord blood, after adjusting for days since last vaccination. ResultsIn this interim analysis, 167 participants received a primary 2-dose series and 73 received a booster dose of mRNA vaccine during pregnancy. Booster vaccination resulted in significantly higher binding and nAb titers, including to the Omicron BA.1 variant, in maternal serum at delivery and cord blood compared to a primary 2-dose series (range 0.55 to 0.88 log10 higher, p<0.0001 for all comparisons). Although levels were significantly lower than to the prototypical D614G variant, nAb to Omicron were present at delivery in 9% (GMT ID50 12.7) of Pfizer and 22% (GMT ID50 14.7) of Moderna recipients, and in 73% (GMT ID50 60.2) of boosted participants (p<0.0001). Transplacental antibody transfer was efficient regardless of vaccination regimen (median transfer ratio range: 1.55-1.77 for binding IgG and 1.00-1.78 for nAb). Conclusions and RelevanceCOVID-19 mRNA vaccination during pregnancy elicited robust immune responses in mothers and efficient transplacental antibody transfer to the newborn. A booster dose during pregnancy significantly increased maternal and cord blood antibody levels, including against Omicron. Findings support continued use of COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy, including booster doses. Trial Registrationclinical trials.gov; Registration Number: NCT05031468; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05031468 Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat is the immune response after COVID-19 booster vaccination during pregnancy and how does receipt of a booster dose impact transplacental antibody transfer to the newborn? FindingsReceipt of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines during pregnancy elicited robust binding and neutralizing antibody responses in the mother and in the newborn. Booster vaccination during pregnancy elicited significantly higher antibody levels in mothers at delivery and cord blood than 2-dose vaccination, including against the Omicron BA.1 variant. MeaningCOVID-19 vaccines, especially booster doses, should continue to be strongly recommended during pregnancy.

Reactogenicity, Safety, and Serological and Cellular Immunogenicity of a Booster Dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Prototype, Variant, and Bivalent Vaccines (preprint)

Waning immunity after two SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccinations and the emergence of variants precipitated the need for booster doses. We evaluated safety and serological and cellular immunogenicity through 6 months after a third mRNA vaccination in adults who received the mRNA-1273 primary series in the Phase 1 trial approximately 9 to 10 months earlier. The booster vaccine formulations included 100 mcg of mRNA-1273, 50 mcg of mRNA-1273.351 that encodes Beta variant spike protein, and bivalent vaccine of 25 mcg each of mRNA-1273 and mRNA-1273.351. A third dose of mRNA vaccine appeared safe with acceptable reactogenicity. Vaccination induced rapid increases in binding and neutralizing antibody titers to D614G, Beta, Delta and Omicron variants that persisted through 6 months post-boost, particularly after administration of Beta-containing vaccines. Spike-specific CD4 + and CD8 + T cells increased to levels similar to those following the second dose. Boost vaccination induced broad and durable humoral and T cell responses. ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT04283461 (mRNA-1273 Phase 1) and NCT04785144 (mRNA-1273.351 Phase 1)

Anti-nucleocapsid antibodies following SARS-CoV-2 infection in the blinded phase of the mRNA-1273 Covid-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial (preprint)

Importance: The performance of immunoassays for determining past SARS-CoV-2 infection, which were developed in unvaccinated individuals, has not been assessed in vaccinated individuals. Objective: To evaluate anti-nucleocapsid antibody (anti-N Ab) seropositivity in mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial participants after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the trial's blinded phase. Design: Nested analysis in a Phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy trial. Nasopharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing were taken from all participants on Day 1 and Day 29 (vaccination days), and during symptom-prompted illness visits. Serum samples from Days 1, 29, 57, and the Participant Decision Visit (PDV, when participants were informed of treatment assignment, median day 149) were tested for anti-N Abs. Setting: Multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 99 sites in the US. Participants: Trial participants were [≥] 18 years old with no known history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and at appreciable risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or high risk of severe Covid-19. Nested sub-study consists of participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase of the trial. Intervention: Two mRNA-1273 (Moderna) or Placebo injections, 28 days apart. Main Outcome and Measure: Detection of serum anti-N Abs by the Elecsys (Roche) immunoassay in samples taken at the PDV from participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase. The hypothesis tested was that mRNA-1273 recipients have different anti-N Ab seroconversion and/or seroreversion profiles after SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to placebo recipients. The hypothesis was formed during data collection; all main analyses were pre-specified before being conducted. Results: We analyzed data from 1,789 participants (1,298 placebo recipients and 491 vaccine recipients) with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase (through March 2021). Among participants with PCR-confirmed Covid-19 illness, seroconversion to anti-N Abs at a median follow up of 53 days post diagnosis occurred in 21/52 (40%) of the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients vs. 605/648 (93%) of the placebo recipients (p < 0.001). Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral copies at diagnosis was associated with a higher likelihood of anti-N Ab seropositivity (odds ratio 1.90 per 1-log increase; 95% confidence interval 1.59, 2.28). Conclusions and Relevance: As a marker of recent infection, anti-N Abs may have lower sensitivity in mRNA-1273-vaccinated persons who become infected. Vaccination status should be considered when interpreting seroprevalence and seropositivity data based solely on anti-N Ab testing Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04470427

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial (preprint)

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Neutralization After Heterologous Vaccine Boosting (preprint)

As part of an ongoing study assessing homologous and heterologous booster vaccines, following primary EUA series, we assessed neutralization of D614G and Omicron variants prior to and 28 days after boost. Subset analysis was done in six combinations (N = 10/group): four homologous primary-booster combinations included mRNA-1273 two-dose priming followed by boosting with 100-g or 50-g mRNA-1273, Ad26.COV2.S single-dose priming followed by Ad26.COV2.S booster and BNT162b2 two-dose priming followed by BNT162b2 boosting; and two heterologous primary-booster combinations: BNT162b2 followed by Ad26.COV2.S and Ad26.COV2.S followed by BNT162b2. Neutralizing antibody (Nab) titers to D614G on the day of boost (baseline) were detected in 85-100% of participants, with geometric mean titers (GMT) of 71-343 in participants who received an mRNA vaccine series versus GMTs of 35-41 in participants primed with Ad26.OV2.S. Baseline NAb titers to Omicron were detected in 50-90% of participants who received an mRNA vaccine series (GMT range 12.8-24.5) versus 20-25% among participants primed with Ad26.COV2.S. The booster dose increased the neutralizing GMT in most combinations to above 1000 for D614G and above 250 for Omicron by Day 29. Homologous prime-boost Ad26.COV2.S had the lowest NAb on Day 29 (D614G GMT 128 and Omicron GMT 45). Results were similar between age groups. Most homologous and heterologous boost combinations examined will increase humoral immunity to the Omicron variant.

Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations: Preliminary Report (preprint)

Background: While Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccines are highly effective, breakthrough infections are occurring. Booster vaccinations have recently received emergency use authorization (EUA) for certain populations but are restricted to homologous mRNA vaccines. We evaluated homologous and heterologous booster vaccination in persons who had received an EUA Covid-19 vaccine regimen. Methods: In this phase 1/2 open-label clinical trial conducted at ten U.S. sites, adults who received one of three EUA Covid-19 vaccines at least 12 weeks prior to enrollment and had no reported history of SARS-CoV-2 infection received a booster injection with one of three vaccines (Moderna mRNA-1273 100-mcg, Janssen Ad26.COV2.S 5x1010 virus particles, or Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 30-mcg; nine combinations). The primary outcomes were safety, reactogenicity, and humoral immunogenicity on study days 15 and 29. Results: 458 individuals were enrolled: 154 received mRNA-1273, 150 received Ad26.CoV2.S, and 154 received BNT162b2 booster vaccines. Reactogenicity was similar to that reported for the primary series. Injection site pain, malaise, headache, and myalgia occurred in more than half the participants. Booster vaccines increased the neutralizing activity against a D614G pseudovirus (4.2-76-fold) and binding antibody titers (4.6-56-fold) for all combinations; homologous boost increased neutralizing antibody titers 4.2-20-fold whereas heterologous boost increased titers 6.2-76-fold. Day 15 neutralizing and binding antibody titers varied by 28.7-fold and 20.9-fold, respectively, across the nine prime-boost combinations. Conclusion: Homologous and heterologous booster vaccinations were well-tolerated and immunogenic in adults who completed a primary Covid-19 vaccine regimen at least 12 weeks earlier.

Efficacy and Safety of NVX-CoV2373 in Adults in the United States and Mexico (preprint)

BACKGROUND Vaccination using severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike (S) protein antigen has been effective in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). NVX-CoV2373 is an adjuvanted, recombinant S protein nanoparticle vaccine that demonstrated clinical efficacy for prevention of Covid-19 in phase 2b/3 trials in the United Kingdom and South Africa. METHODS This phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of NVX-CoV2373 in adults [≥]18 years of age in the United States and Mexico during the first quarter of 2021. Participants were randomized in a 2:1 ratio to receive two doses of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo 21 days apart. The primary end point was vaccine efficacy (VE) against reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-confirmed Covid-19 in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants [≥]7 days after the second dose administration. RESULTS Of the 29,949 participants randomized between December 27, 2020, and February 18, 2021, 29,582 (median age: 47 years, 12.6% [≥]65 years) received [≥]1 dose: 19,714 received vaccine and 9868 placebo. In the per-protocol population, there were 77 Covid-19 cases; 14 among vaccine and 63 among placebo recipients (VE: 90.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 82.9 to 94.6, P<0.001). All moderate-to-severe cases occurred in placebo recipients, yielding VE of 100% (95% CI 87.0 to 100). Most sequenced viral genomes (48/61, 78.7%) were variants of concern (VOC) or interest (VOI), mainly represented by variant alpha/B.1.1.7 (31/35, 88.6% VOC identified). VE against any VOC/VOI was 92.6% (95% CI 83.6 to 96.7). Reactogenicity was mostly mild-to-moderate and transient, but more frequent in NVX-CoV2373 recipients and after the second dose. Serious adverse events were rare and evenly distributed between treatments. CONCLUSIONS NVX-CoV2373 was well tolerated and demonstrated a high overall VE (>90%) for prevention of Covid-19, with most cases due to variant strains. (Funded by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health; PREVENT-19 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04611802.)

Covid-19 in the Phase 3 Trial of mRNA-1273 During the Delta-variant Surge (preprint)

BackgroundFollowing emergency use authorization in December 2020, the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial was amended to an open-label phase, where participants were unblinded and those randomized to placebo were offered vaccination. Emergence of the delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been associated with increased incidences of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) among unvaccinated and vaccinated persons. This exploratory analysis evaluated the incidence and genetic sequences of Covid-19 cases in the ongoing COVE trial during the open-label phase, with a focus on July-August 2021, when delta-variants surged in the US. MethodsCovid-19 cases were identified in participants initially randomized to mRNA-1273 (vaccinated from July-December 2020) and those initially randomized to the placebo (vaccinated December 2020-April 2021) who received at least one dose and were SARS-CoV-2-negative at baseline in the modified-intent-to-treat population were analyzed. Included were Covid-19 cases occurring after 26-Mar-2021 with positive RT-PCR results in nasopharyngeal samples (central lab test) and reported Covid-19 symptoms. Genetic sequencing of Covid-19 cases was also performed. ResultsThere were 14,746 participants in the earlier mRNA-1273 (mRNA-1273e) group and 11,431 in the later placebo-mRNA1273 (mRNA-1273p) group. Covid-19 cases increased from the start of the open-label phase to July-August 2021. During July and August, 162 Covid-19 cases occurred in the mRNA-1273e group and 88 in the mRNA-1273p group. Of the cases sequenced, 144/149 [97%]) in the mRNA-1273 and 86/88 (99%) in the mRNA-1273p groups were attributed to delta. The incidence rate of Covid-19 was lower for the mRNA-1273p (49.0/1000 person-years) versus mRNA-1273e (77.1/1000 person-years) group [36.4% (95% CI 17.1%-51.5%) reduction]. There were fewer severe Covid-19 cases in the mRNA-1273p (6; 6.2/1000 person-years) than mRNA-1273e (13; 3.3/1000 person-years) [46.0% (95% CI -52.4%-83.2%) reduction]. Three Covid-19 related hospitalizations occurred with two resulting deaths in the mRNA-1273e group. ConclusionIncidence rates of Covid-19 and severe Covid-19 were lower during the months when delta was the dominant variant (July/August 2021) among COVE participants vaccinated more recently. Analysis of COVID-19 cases from the open-label phase of the COVE study is ongoing.

Trajectory of viral load in a prospective population-based cohort with incident SARS-CoV-2 G614 infection (preprint)

ImportanceSARS-CoV-2 viral trajectory has not been well-characterized in documented incident infections. These data will inform SARS-CoV-2 natural history, transmission dynamics, prevention practices, and therapeutic development. ObjectiveTo prospectively characterize early SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in persons with incident infection. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingSecondary data analysis from a multicenter study in the U.S. ParticipantsThe samples derived from a randomized controlled trial of 829 community-based asymptomatic participants recently exposed (<96 hours) to persons with SARS-CoV-2. Participants collected daily mid-turbinate swabs for SARS-CoV-2 detection by polymerase-chain-reaction and symptom diaries for 14-days. Persons with negative swab for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline who developed infection during the study were included in the analysis. ExposureLaboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main outcomes and measuresThe observed SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding characteristics were summarized and shedding trajectories were examined using a piece-wise linear mixed-effects modeling. Whole viral genome sequencing was performed on samples with cycle threshold (Ct)<34. ResultsNinety-seven persons (57% women, median age 37-years) developed incident infections during 14-days of follow-up. Two-hundred fifteen sequenced samples were assigned to 15 lineages that belonged to the G614 variant. Forty-two (43%), 18(19%), and 31(32%) participants had viral shedding for 1 day, 2-6 days, and [≥]7 days, with median peak viral load Ct of 38.5, 36.7, and 18.3, respectively. Six (6%) participants had 1-6 days of observed viral shedding with censored duration. The peak average viral load was observed on day 3 of viral shedding. The average Ct value was lower, indicating higher viral load, in persons reporting COVID-19 symptoms than asymptomatic. Using the statistical model, the median time from shedding onset to peak viral load was 1.4 days followed by a median of 9.7 days before clearance. Conclusions and RelevanceIncident SARS-CoV-2 G614 infection resulted in a rapid viral load peak followed by slower decay and positive correlation between peak viral load and shedding duration; duration of shedding was heterogeneous. This longitudinal evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 variant with frequent molecular testing may serve as a reference for comparing emergent viral lineages to inform clinical trial designs and public health strategies to contain the spread of the virus. KEY POINTSO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat are the early SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding characteristics in persons with incident infection? FindingsIn this prospective cohort of 97 community-based participants who collected daily mid-turbinate swabs for SARS-CoV-2 detection after recent exposure to SARS-CoV-2, viral trajectory was characterized by a rapid peak followed by slower decay. Peak viral load correlated positively with symptoms. The duration of shedding was heterogeneous. MeaningA detailed description of the SARS-CoV-2 G614 viral shedding trajectory serves as baseline for comparison to new viral variants of concern and inform models for the planning of clinical trials and transmission dynamics to end this pandemic.

Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial (preprint)

BackgroundIn the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection. MethodsThrough case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors. ResultsDay 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.42 (0.27, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.61; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%). ConclusionsBinding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19. Trial registration numberCOVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427

Assessing Durability of Vaccine Effect Following Blinded Crossover in COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials (preprint)

BackgroundSeveral candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known. MethodsFollowing vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease. ResultsPost-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods. ConclusionsWe advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.

The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States (preprint)

BackgroundGlobal vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States (US). MethodsWe developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, while children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection, and specified 10% pre-existing population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current non-pharmaceutical interventions in the US. ResultsVaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% CrI: 4.3% - 5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4% - 9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-ICU hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3% - 66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2% - 68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5% - 73.1%), respectively, across the same period. ConclusionsOur results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact. Key pointsVaccination with a 95% efficacy against disease could substantially mitigate future attack rates, hospitalizations, and deaths, even if only adults are vaccinated. Non-pharmaceutical interventions remain an important part of outbreak response as vaccines are distributed over time.